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This above example is where there is a clear favorite (with negative odds) and a clear underdog (with positive odds). However in the cases where there are two teams which are similarly favored by the market or, more commonly, the betting lines which use a point spread the calculation is slightly different. In this case the implied probability and actual probability can be calculated by using the New York Yankees example of calculating the implied and actual probability of winning. Simply knowing how to calculate the no-vig probabilities is not going to make you a winning bettor but you can use those probabilities to help you win; one way to do this is to create a model that are more accurate than the opening lines of a sportsbook.

Suppose that you model the game tomorrow between the Yankees and the Royals and the lines are -160150 respectively and you model the game with a fair line of -170170. Obviously the underdog is not a good bet since you only get a price of 150 on a game where you predict they should be getting 170. Conversely, the price of -160 is more appealing since the line is better than you have modelled. The line of -170 you predicted converts to a winning percentage of 62. 96 as opposed to the actual line of -160 which gives 61.

54 - this means that taking the Yankees at a price of -160 gives you an edge of 1.

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